Now that the NATO alliance has decided, rightfully in my
ever-so-humble opinion, to try and put a stop to Milosevic's tyranny in the Balkans, the
politicians had better step out of the way and let the military do its job. Say
whatever you will about the wisdom, legality, whatever of NATO's actions; the simple fact
is that the Western Alliance is at war with the Federal Yugoslav military and leadership
and the longer this drags out the more misery will befall the civilians in theater and the
more shaky the alliance will become. The United States
military, and NATO by extension, operates with a core mandate: Bring sufficient pressure
to bear against the enemy to end the conflict as quickly as possible on terms acceptable
to the United States. The so-called Powell Doctrine of overwhelming force grows
directly from this concept. The only thing that can interfere with the application
of this doctrine is political meddling. As we saw in Iraq, a capable military left
to do its job with the resources and political support required can be swift and
effective. Alternatively as we saw in Vietnam and to an extent Somalia, when armies
are micro-managed for political end the result is often disaster. Modern militaries
exist for one reason: to inflict crushing punishment on the opposition and bring them to
heel quickly. Unfortunately (or fortunately depending how you look at it), most
civilians in western society have absolutely no real idea how war looks if its not on a
movie screen. Confronted with the true violence inherant in war, most recoil in
horror and demand that it end. After all, what could be worth that?
I believe Milosevic thinks he can weather this out on two
fronts.
Firstly, as long as NATO restricts its operation to high-level
bombing his troops on the ground can operate with a certain degree of impunity. With
western journalists and observers kicked out of the region, his forces appear to be on a
mission to do as much damage as quickly as possible and effectively cleanse Kosovo of as
many Albanians as they can. Reports of atrocities are begining to emerge, including
the separation of men from their families followed by summary execution. Its rumored
that hundreds of Albanians were executed on Friday by Serb security forces.
Secondly, at some point NATO has to make a choice. The
limited damage to Milosevic's strength possible through the current attacks will require
NATO to eventually move to lower-level attacks on Serbian forces proper. This
greatly increases the chance of a NATO aircraft being shot down. Its for this reason
I believe that you haven't seen a more aggressive defense against the bombing up until
now. Milosevic knows that once NATO soldiers start to die (or be captured and
humiliated and possible executed) that public opinion may demand a halt to operations.
He really doesn't care how many people die as long as he holds on to power.
Given the chance, I have no doubt he'll try to grow this conflict across the whole
region. The longer this conflict is allowed to go on the more likely it is to spiral
out of control.
The best hope NATO has is to begin delivering blows against
Yugoslav Federal Forces that are so violent that they'll either be crushed or driven to
unseat Milosevic. This won't be easy and it won't be pretty. It is highly
likely that pilots will be killed or captured once they drop to the altitudes necessary to
seriously degrade Serbian ground forces. Milosevic is undoubtedly husbanding his air
defenses until he can get good shots at NATO planes. His generals must know that to
target a plane means the death of the anti-aircraft battery. Once NATO can see it,
they can kill it. A commander's only option is to wait until he has a good shot and
try to get the ordinance off before the targeted plane can neutralize the site. Once
NATO soldiers start to get killed western public opinion could become much more volitile.
Central to maintaining public support for this war will be
clear and undisputable proof of Serbian atrocities against ethnic Albanians. NATO
must get a special force squad into Kosovo and try and get pictures showing the result of
the Serb's recent assaults on civilians. The only way the public will accept thae
violence necessary to stop this disaster is to see first hand what is being done on the
ground. If people see unquestionable evidence of summary executions and mass graves,
along with first hand accounts of fleeing refugees, the understanding that we have no
choice but to stop this now at all costs will drive itself home. Even though most
westerners (particularly North Americans) are mostly ignorant of world affairs, they've
largely given NATO and the politicians the benefit of the doubt on Kosovo. Before
any signifcant number of NATO troops are killed they will need to have their belief in the
necessity of these actions to be strongly reinforced.
With the above in mind, following is General Mitchbert's
suggestions for going forward:
1. The air war must be immediately brought to the troops on the ground. On the
first hint that a Yugoslav army or security force is moving to engage a civilian
population center NATO must launch attacks against that force with AH-64 helicopters and
A-10 fixed wing aircraft. These are terror weapons that can destroy not only the
vehicles used by the troops, but deliver a horrifying experience to any soldier on the
ground who survives the assault. Any force moving against a civilian center must be
utterly destroyed. NATO will likely lose planes in this effort. As a
result,the destruction must be so total that other Yugoslav units are driven to think
twice about further similar action. The first time a unit moves under pressure from
command into a villiage and gets wiped out from the air a crack will appear in the
Yugoslav military.
2. The attempt at a satellite broadcast into Serbia by Clinton was a good idea and
should be built upon. Serbs in Belgrade have been fed a steady diet of nationalistic
lies for the past several years so opinion won't change overnight, but the west must try
and get through to the people that the problem is Milosevic, not them.
3. Any attempt by Yugoslavia to widen the war to Bosnia or Macedonia must be met
with disproportionate responses that produce a price so high that the Yugoslav army would
argue that "its one thing to get killed for our own country, but another to get
killed somewhere else." Simultaneously, the intensity of the attacks must be
increased to keep the army's focus on the battelfield NATO chooses.
4. NATO must be prepared to introduce ground troops into Kosovo as soon as they
can be reasonably sure they can move them in without having to fight for every foot of
ground. A large concentration of Yugoslav troops is positioned to the northeast of
the Kosovo/Macedonia border in a position that appears to indicate they can cut off a NATO
ground incursion. They may have also mined bridges and roads. These troops
must be hammered into the ground so that NATO engineers can get in and determine the
challenges faced in moving in country. Once the Yugoslav army is either supressed or
in flight and the way in is clear, NATO can begin moving into Kosovo territory and
securing as much as possible to provide safe haven for refugees and get international
observers in to uncover and document war crimes.
5. The longer this goes on the more chance there is for Russia to make mischief.
Already some Russians are reportedly heading to Belgrade to volunteer to fight against the
western imperialists. With the lawlessness in Russia its only a matter of time
before some rich nationalistic mafioso decides he wants to play war. The fighting
must end before Russia has a chance to get involved beyond simple rhetoric.
I could go on. The bottom line is that we've got ourselves in this sorry affair
and if we don't move resolutely the implications could be beyond our darkest nightmares.
I do not believe it to be beyond comprehension that Russia could be driven to enter
this conflict on the side of Belgrade if the fighting drags on. A much larger war
could develop that could so tie up American forces that other international bullies (North
Korea, eg) might be tempted to stir up trouble elsewhere (can you spell World War,
Johnny?). NATO has the power to bring Yugoslavia's military to heel quickly without
utterly devastating the country and its people. They must make it clear that only
once Milosevic is stopped and his criminal conspirators brought to international justice
will the attacks end. No false cease fires. No vague promises of better
behavior. He's stepped over the line. NATO has been forced to put its soldiers
in harm's way to stop the worst butcher in Europe since WWII.
The fuse of war is lit in the Balkans and the power is aflame. Let's do this
quickly, get it over with, and move on to figuring out how to clean up the resulting mess
and keep it from happening again.
mitchbert 3/27/99 |
